This report identifies the curent trends, events, and short term forecast associated with the 2012 monsoon season.
Monsoon Impact:The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) advises that the impact of the monsoon in the region has been below normal so far. As of 25 July, monsoon rains in India are 22% below normal overall, and 39% below normal in the northwest of India in the areas adjoining Pakistan. In Pakistan, the monsoon rains are nearly 50% below normal. Most parts of Balochistan, the canal fed Indus Left Bank districts in Sindh, and most of Gilgit Baltistan have received 5mm of rain or less. The maps below show the spatial distribution of rainfall (mm) from 1-20 July 2012, and the percentage departure of rainfall from normal.
Rivers Flows: As of 25 July, river flows have been normal except for the Kabul River which is in low to medium flood at Warsak and Nowshera.
Water Reservoir Levels: The water level in Tarbela Reservoir is currently at 1460 feet with maximum storage capacity of 1550 feet. The water level at Mangla Reservoir is 1151 feet with a maximum storage capacity of 1242 feet. These levels are below the last five year average.
Drought: There is mild to moderate drought along the Balochistan coast and the south western region, which has caused depletion of most local water sources, and referred to as a hydrological drought. If water sources are not replenished, populations may migrate away from the affected regions.
Canal Breaches: There have been reports of numerous canal breaches in Sindh, resulting in losses of standing crops and livelihoods, and population displacement. Stakeholders attribute these breaches to very high consumer demand and operational lapses. The anticipated impact of the 2012 monsoon season as well as events ocurring since 11 July are indicated on the map overleaf. Vulnerable districts are identified according to historical precedence of similar events.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR JULY 2012 (PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT)
The precipation forecast to 9 August 2012 indicates that rains are likely in upper and central Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the adjoining regions of AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan, and along the coastal regions of Sindh and Balochistan, as shown in the maps below. These forecasts are considered to be 80% accurate.
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