ISLAMABAD – The Economic Survey 2015-2016, to be presented by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and Planning and Development Minister Ahsan Iqbal today (Thursday), will reveal that the government missed the GDP growth target set for the outgoing fiscal year due to negative growth in agriculture sector, considered the backbone of national economy.
The government for the third consecutive year has failed to achieve the economic growth target, as it could achieve 4.7 percent against the unrealistic target of 5.
The government believes that low cotton production has eroded 0.5 percent GDP growth during the outgoing year.
Apart from the missed GDP growth target, the government has also missed the targets set for the agriculture sector, savings and investments, which will be highlighted in the Survey
For the first time in decades, agriculture sector output has contracted in 2015-2016, instead of showing growth.
The agriculture sector recorded a negative growth of 0.19 percent as a whole against the target of 3.
9 percent: cotton production witnessed a negative growth of 27 percent and stood at 10.1 million bales against the target of 13.96 million bales.
Produce of other important crops also decreased in the outgoing fiscal year by 7.18 percent as against the target of 3.2 percent, while other crops fell by 6.2 percent against the target of 4.5 percent.
Wheat was the only exception, whose production grew by a meager 0.61 percent to reach up to 25.47 million of tonnes.
Meanwhile, fishing registered a growth of 3.25 percent against the target of 3 percent; forestry 8.
84 percent against the target of 4 percent; livestock 3.63 percent against the target of 4.1 percent.
Overall, the industry grew by 6.8 percent against the target of 6.4 percent. It was supported by the construction and electricity sectors.
In the manufacturing sector, mining and quarrying grew by 6.8 percent against the target of 6 percent.
Large scale manufacturing sector witnessed the growth of 4.61 percent as against the target of 6 percent, while small scale manufacturing sector grew by 8.21 percent against the target of 8.3 percent during the outgoing financial year.
The electricity and gas generation as well as distribution recorded growth of 12.18 percent while the construction sector registered massive growth of 13.1 percent during the outgoing FY.
The services sector’s growth stood at 5.7 percent during 2015-16.
Wholesale and retail trade recorded the growth of 4.57 percent against the target of 5.5 percent in the sector.
Transport, storage and communication all missed the target of 6.1 percent set for this year, as it could grow only up to 4.06 percent.
On the other hand, finance and insurance sectors saw a growth of 7.84 percent as compared to the target of 6.5 percent during 2015-16 Housing sector’s growth stood at 3.99 percent against the target of 4 percent.
The investment-to-GDP ratio was recorded at 15.2 percent against the target of 17.
7 percent. Savings remained almost stagnant at 14.5 percent of the GDP, short of the target of 16.8 percent.
The fixed investment also decreased to 13.6 percent against the target of 16.1 percent. The public investment slightly increased to 3.9 percent of the GDP, but remained below the target of 4 percent.
The per capita income grew by only 2.9 percent to reach up to $1,561 – up $44 in the outgoing fiscal year.
In terms of rupees, there was a 5.8 percent growth in per capita income that increased to Rs162, 568.
Source: The Nation